ER-Avoidance Cost Model
The number every other tool depends on. Tune assumptions; the model recomputes the counterfactual — the ED visit, admission, or infusion visit Brekiya kept from happening — plus the net cost avoided per treated patient and across the addressable population.
Refractory migraine + cluster headache US pool. Used to size the total opportunity and anchor the value story that every other view rescopes down from.
| Avoided ED visits / yr (adherence-adjusted) | 0.94 |
| Avoided inpatient admissions / yr | 0.094 |
| Avoided infusion-center visits / yr | 0.63 |
| Gross avoided cost / treated patient / yr | $4,063 |
| Brekiya cost / treated patient / yr | − $2,184 |
| Net avoided / treated patient / yr | $1,879 |
The number Brekiya's value story is missing today isn't waiting to be pulled together — a share of it structurally can't be observed. An ER visit that Brekiya prevented never generates a claim. Evidence Assembly constructs the counterfactual across three avoided event types (ED visits, inpatient admissions from those visits, and scheduled infusion-center visits), then scales both the drug spend and the avoided-event benefit by real-world adherence. Population-level numbers are split Y1 vs. steady state so the "% of eligible actually treated" assumption is visible on the surface, not hidden behind a headline. Every lever on the right is tunable; the version that ships to a P&T committee is a locked snapshot with citations attached.